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$10,000 No-Limit Hold'em Championship, Day Three:"Why, Why, What If, and If Only"By Andrew N.S. Glazer Busting out of the World Series of Poker is traumatic no matter when you do it, although the sheer drama and anguished questions seem to intensify at three key points: first, when you're approaching a finish in the money; second, when you're approaching the final table and a shot at the big money and a television appearance; and third, when you're approaching the title, when huge money and a place in history loom large. Today, Wednesday, May 22, 2002, we reached the first of those key points in the $10,000 entry No-Limit Championship Event. When we began play, these were the 130 hopefuls that remained from the 631 starters:
SOME PRELIMINARY HELP FOR ANDY Before we get into the nuts and bolts of all this, I want to ask you to do me a favor and help with some questions that you would probably skip if I left them for the end. : Normally, after the World Series ends, Wednesday Nite Poker reverts to being more of an instructional, bi-weekly newsletter. A number of people have made requests for varying kinds of World Series information aside from type and variety I usually include about final tables. In the week or two following the WSOP, I plan to put one or more special pieces together about some of the other atmosphere and flavor of the WSOP, and I'd like my readers to tell me what they want. If you'd like to see a piece describing the high stakes side action, click here, pokerpundit@aol.com, and just write "high stakes action" in the subject line. If you'd like to see a piece describing all of the side action as well as the constant flow of satellites and supersatellites, click here, AndrewNSGlazer@aol.com and just write "all side action" in the subject line. Although my final story will include as many quotes from the Champion as possible, if you'd like to see a piece that's a special interview with the Champion, click here, andyglazer@aol.com, and just write "interview champ" in the subject line. If you'd like to see reports on more than one of these pieces, just also take the time to include a little information in the body of the email explaining what else you want. You can also use the same technique to tell me what kinds of articles, instructional or otherwise, you'd like to see in WNP after the Series is over, I'll do my best to follow as many of your suggestions as possible. WE NOW RETURN TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMING In my report yesterday, I noted that when play began again today at noon, an average stack would be $48,545, and that "One thing is for sure: don't count the short stacks out." Would that every prediction I made would come as true. I made a few others. Let's recount them, and then see how I (and far more importantly, the players) did in meeting them. I called table #59 the "Table of Doom" because the line-up featured three of the seven largest stacks in the tournament.
I also predicted (allowing myself a redraw) a final table of Gardner, Reese, Hellmuth, Betson, Ivey, D, Laing, and Fox, Four of my nine made it, but probably not the four you think. I also noted that "Had Boatman not drawn the Table of Doom, he'd have been a strong candidate, but stuck between those big stacks, he's going to have to get lucky at least once," and that La "... is a far more experienced high stakes limit player than a tournament no-limit player and I would not expect him to make the money even at an easier table," Let's see how the Pundit and those players managed, starting with $200 antes and $600-$1,200 blinds, which meant that at nine-handed tables, there was $3,600 in dead money available for a raiser (or, put another way, it would cost a player $3,600 to sit out a round). AND AS HE RISES THROUGH ROYALTY'S RANKS... Lord Phillip Ivey suffered the day's first major disaster when holding pocket threes, he went up against Birmingham, England's John Shipley, who held A-K. Most of the money went in on the A-3-4 flop, and Ivey took a 989-1 beat when the board finished A-A to give Shipley quad aces (note that one ace wouldn't have been enough because Shipley would have had only trips while Ivey would have held a full house). Although a K-K or A-K finish would also have beaten Ivey, Lord Phillip suffered a horrendous quarter million dollar defeat no matter how you analyze it, and was left with only about $25,000 out of his impressive starting stack. After waiting a decent interval to allow him to calm himself (although The Unflappable One never seemed particularly ill at ease), I approached him to offer condolences, only to receive a shrug and a quiet "Back to chopping" explanation. If there's an emergency waiting to happen, I want Phil Ivey around. He doesn't lose his cool when matters don't go his way. I dubbed him Sir Phillip yesterday and said he'd earn a lordship if he made the money. The early defeat didn't knock him off stride, and he finished the day in 37th place at $59,000. He'd actually made it up near 90k for a while only to fall back a bit at the end. "I'll make my move tomorrow," he confided. By the time we reached the middle of the second level ($300 antes, $800-$1,600 blinds), big moves had been made by 2000 final tablist Hasan Habib, who despite sitting on Gardner's right had more than quintupled his $45,400, and Meng La, who despite my lack of faith in his no-limit prowess had driven his starting $35,300 it up to $180,000, thanks in large part to a fearless and largely unchallenged strategy of re-raising Boatman and Hellmuth initial raises. "10-4, GOOD BUDDY" D had also moved his starting stack near the 300k mark (thanks in part to one hand when he called a relatively short stacked Greg "Fossilman" Raymer all-in raise with 10-4 offsuit, only to see Raymer turn over Ah-Qh; D made a straight with his ten on the turn, leaving Raymer no outs except for the one marked "exit," and the shocked, popular RGP poster headed in that direction. Meanwhile, Reese seemed to play a bit passively and had fallen back near the 100k mark. When we reached the third level ($400 antes, $1,200-$2,400 blinds) at 5:00 p.m., the chip leaders were D, 307k Shipley, 290k, Meng La, 287k Habib, 167k Gardner, 162k Hellmuth had lost a little ground from his starting stack, generally tending to make his money a little at a time (an unchallenged initial raise at this level earned the raiser $6,800, for example), usually with an initial raise, occasionally with a re-raise, but almost always releasing his hand when re-raised or three-bet. He kept warning La that one of those re-raises of his was going to get La broke, but La's chip mountain kept growing. Hellmuth finally decided to take a stand, but in a curious fashion. Varykonyi made it $8,000 to go from middle position, and Hellmuth re-raised to $25,000 total from the small blind. Instead of mucking or calling the $17,000 raise, Varykonyi decided to push all-in for another $84,500. OH, WHAT THE HECK, IT'S ONLY $84,500 Hellmuth looked to have about $10,000 more than that left in front of him, and asked Varykonyi to count his chips down, all the while looking for a read or clue about the strength of Varykonyi's hand. Varykonyi hadn't quite completed the count when Hellmuth said, "Never mind, I call," and he then asked Varykonyi if he had a pair, which left me 99.44% sure what Hellmuth held: A-K (it turned out to be suited in hearts; that part hadn't been made obvious by the question). Hellmuth's read turned out to be right: Varykonyi turned over Qc-10c, a hand which Hellmuth's figured to beat 62% of the time (a little better than 3-2, for those of you who like your odds that way). Nonetheless, it seemed like a very strange play for Hellmuth, who usually likes the "two ways to win" bet (with the bet or with the hand, and here he was limited to winning only with the hand), and who has proclaimed many times that he doesn't like to play big pots when he is only a small favorite: he'd rather chop out small pots and play the bigger ones when he is fairly sure he is a much bigger favorite, even if it means throwing the best hand away once in a while. Also, even though Hellmuth correctly read Varykonyi to be weak and/or nervous, Varykonyi could easily have been both weak and nervous with a hand like 4-4 or 5-5, each of which would have meant Hellmuth was a small underdog (although not when you factored in the 25k he'd already committed to the pot). Indeed, the only hand Hellmuth could have been happy to see Varykonyi turn over was a weaker ace (a dominated hand like A-Q or A-J), and as Diego Cordovez pointed out to me when we were analyzing the play, the fact that Hellmuth held an ace in his own hand made it a bit less likely that Varykonyi held one in his. THE FLOP OFFERS HELLMUTH MORE HOPE THAN HELP In any event, the board came As-Qs-10h, giving Varykonyi two pair while giving Hellmuth top pair, a gutshot straight draw, and a backdoor flush draw. When the 3s hit the turn, Hellmuth had outs to an ace, king, jack, or trey, but the 8d hit the river, and Hellmuth had a little less than 10k left, the remainder of which Ross Boatman took a few hands later when he called Hellmuth's under-the-gun bet with 4-4. Hellmuth had A-2, and when the first four cards off the deck were 3-5-6-7, Hellmuth had no outs, and this tournament had no former champions remaining. They moved Shipley into Hellmuth's empty seat, and just before the end of the round, La continued his aggressive play by raising to 15k under the gun, only to see Shipley, who owned one of the few stacks that could damage La, make it 45k from the big blind. La called, and the flop came 5-5-2 with two clubs. Shipley checked, La bet out for 80k, and Shipley then moved all-in for his remaining 190k. Despite staring at a pot that contained about $290,000, La folded to the 110k raise (roughly what he had left in front of him), sending Shipley to the break as the clear chip leader while in a single blow La had been crushed. Hellmuth's seat had indeed finally struck back at La's constant raising, but Hellmuth hadn't been in it when the punishing blow had been delivered. Shipley now had about 385k, with Gardner at 320k and D right behind them. La caught a break of sorts because the end of the round signified the dinner break, giving him an hour to recover from the disaster: not everyone has Phil Ivey's coolness under fire. "TABLE OF DOOM" LIVES UP TO SOBRIQUET It seemed unlikely at the day's start, but the Table of Doom had proven to live up to its nickname only for the chip leaders. Hellmuth was out, Reese held a rapidly shrinking stack of about 50k, and Betson, who'd taken some bad beats, had been high carded to another table, where he took some more bad beats. Ko, Boatman and La were in far better shape than the trip they had trailed at the start of the day (Boatman had been up in the mid 100s for a while, and while he was temporarily behind Reese, that deficit lasted one hand into the next round). The $100 chips were removed from the table (a not insignificant action because some players like to sit behind a massive pile of chips, no matter what the color, believing that it gives them an appearance of strength), and the antes moved to $500, while the blinds went to $1,500-$3,000. It was now going to cost $9,000 to sit out a round. "WOE" TO THE BIG STACKS Immediately upon restarting, Boatman doubled his 39.5k through Josef "Pepe" Klinger, who'd lugged 160k with him when he'd been brought over to fill a seat at the Table of Doom, just what this group needed, another big stack to deal with. It couldn't have been five minutes later when Varykonyi, who'd already busted Hellmuth, busted Klinger and his 120k with a big raise that Klinger decided to call with J-J. Varykonyi had A-A, and I changed the table's name to The Table of Doomed Big Stacks If You Got There With One Early, or TTODBSIYGTWOE, for those of you who prefer acronyms. Hey, at least the "WOE" part makes sense. Not that long thereafter, Reese, who is considered one of the world's greatest money players, managed to get the rest of his stack in pre-flop with Ac-8c against Boatman's A-K, and when the first four cards off the deck were a rainbow A-K-4-3 (AK47 might have been more appropriate for this rapid fire table), Reese was out. REESE, BRUNSON SURPRISE MANY WITH APPEARANCES Reese had surprised many people by playing in the tournament: he and friend Doyle Brunson, who did not play due to ailing health but who did put in an appearance, had been loyal to Jack Binion, who in turn has not been getting along well with his sister Becky Binion Behnen, who took over the property after their father Benny's death. It looks like the feud has at least in some measure been put behind them. Players were dropping so fast after the dinner break that that had I not eaten at the buffet myself, I might have suspected trouble there. Co-Tournament Director Matt Savage, who has done a wonderful job here working proactively and energetically, couldn't resist noting over the microphone that "Gambling is still legal in the state of Nevada." He could barely finishing announcing one all-in hand on one side of the room before another would break out on the other side. Ten players busted out in the first hour after dinner, but I thought we were still in for a lengthy money battle. It had taken several hours to eliminate the last five players before the money in 2001, and I expected more of the same here, with 46th worth nothing but a good story and 45th worth $20,000, but I couldn't possibly have been more wrong (well, yes, I could: I could have been playing that pair of pocket eights again on Monday). In the span of what was, as nearly as I could tell, about 90 seconds, Alan Betson, who had earlier had two aces cracked by a boorish fellow who gave a victory dance when he made a straight on the river, lost his last $50,500 to Kurt Paseka's A-A when he held J-J. Betson was 50th. TALK ABOUT MOVING FROM THE PENTHOUSE TO THE... Moments later, Meng La led out for 60k at a flop of 8c-8s-5s, only to see TTODBSIYGTWOE-crusher Varykonyi move all-in for enough to cover La's last 77k. After some internal debate, La decided to call with Ks-Qs, the second-nut flush draw, but it never got there and Varykonyi's own A-A sent La out 49th. La had either been the chip leader or something very close to it when there were about 70 players left, and now he hadn't even made the money. I usually avoid negative statements like the one I had made about La ("La ... is a far more experienced high stakes limit player than a tournament no-limit player and I would not expect him to make the money even at an easier table,"), and it had certainly looked like I was going to have to eat those words, but maybe the Universe figured I'd had to eat enough words yesterday. HOPKINS ACCEPTS RESPONSIBILITY FOR OWN LOSS, IS IMMEDIATELY VOTED OUT OF POKER PLAYER UNION As La was debating his fate, Los Angelino Greg Hopkins had limped in to a pot from the small bind with Q-3 ("I wouldn't have done it, but with another limper I thought I could get lucky and pick up a lot of chips," he told me), and busted out 48th to "WonderKid" Jason Lane when a queen flopped and Lane held K-Q. "I busted myself and got just what I deserved," Hopkins said. Wow, another player gone and even more unbelievably another player who took responsibility for his own fate. It took about ten seconds for Hasan Habib to get the rest of his chips in with A-A, a few before the flop and the remainder on the flop, understandable enough, against Ralph Perry, who had J-J and who was only too happy to accommodate the former quarter-million dollar man with his set of jacks on the flop. Habib left the room as soon as the jack flopped; I'm not sure we would have been able to find him had an ace hit the turn or river, but the situation never materialized, and neither did the disappointed Habib. With Habib out 47th, this explosive exodus left us hand for hand, and pocket aces stopped turning up every other hand. In case you're not familiar with the hand-for hand rule, the idea is to prevent stalling by players at one table (we had six tables in action here) so that someone at another table goes broke first. Each dealer delivered one hand and then waited for all the other tables to finish one hand before delivering another one. THE "MOST NOTED THEORIST" BECOMES THE "MOST NOTED TIGHT PLAYER" The two short stacks were noted poker theorist David Sklansky and noted high stakes action player Yosh Nakano, who had about 20k each, enough for a little more than two rounds of inaction. It soon became obvious that Sklansky wasn't going to play a hand even if he picked up two aces. Every hand went into the muck, and the whole notion of position changed when Sklansky had the big blind. Unless the first actor had 2-3 offsuit, he raised, knowing that Sklansky would not defend, and given the wild action that had eliminated players 51-47, his actions weren't unreasonable, given that he was determined to make the money at the cost of whatever equity he had to go after the $2,000,000 first prize. At one point, Sklansky had $1,500 in as the small blind, and Ivey couldn't resist really putting him to the Tightness Test by merely limping in from the button. I was standing next to Amarillo Slim Preston as Ivey made this play. NOPE, NO KICKS AND NO NEED TO RUIN A PERFECTLY GOOD HAT "He won't call it," Slim said quietly to me. "You can wet in this hat (Slim's trademark hat, the one that is graced by the rattlesnake that bit him and which died after two days of intense pain) if he does. It won't be any fun for you, I know (Whew, glad Slim doesn't know about my kinky side), but the hat is safe." Sklansky tossed his hand away, even though with the antes, big blind and limp money, he was shooting at $12,000 for the $1,500 call. Meanwhile, Tony D was loving every moment of this hand for hand hanging on, stealing four pots in a row at one point, and at 9k a pot, this was starting to add up to a significant chunk of change. He undoubtedly wanted the hand for hand battle to last as long as possible. SKLANSKY WAITS FOR A HAND, IMPATIENCE, GODOT, OR MAYBE MORE CREDENTIALS TO SELL THAT NEW TOURNAMENT POKER BOOK OF HIS Nakano played a pot and won, leaving Sklansky the shortest stack by a factor of more than two, and leaving Sklansky hoping that some impatient player would find something he couldn't resist playing, or would find something justifiably irresistible that didn't hold up. Whether Sklansky would have started playing when he hit a very low mark we'll never know, because he got his wish. Big stack John Shipley was doing his own version of "the Tony D," stealing a few pots with his huge stack, when Marcus Golser found the hand I consider the single toughest to play properly in no-limit hold'em, J-J, and pushed his 60k all-in, only to find Shipley perfectly willing to play along with Q-Q. The board missed everyone, and we had our 45 moneyed players:
I had predicted Gardner, Reese, Hellmuth, Betson, Ivey, D, Laing, and Fox when we had 130 players, and felt a little cheated on that attempt when Fox eliminated Laing, although because Fox is the best friend I have left in the final 45 (I like a lot of them, but there can be only one best), I could hardly feel bad about the result. The three players who had started at TTODBSIYGTWOE (Reese, Hellmuth, and Betson) had all been damaged by Meng La, only to see La in turn hand the chips over to Shipley. "THAT'S MY STORY AND I'M STICKING TO IT" There's an old story, probably of the urban legend variety, about a football player who came home very late one night and who didn't want to wake his wife and try to explain where he'd been, so he claimed he'd gotten in at a late but reasonable hour, but rather than waking her he had considerately gone to sleep in the hammock in the back yard. "Honey," his wife said, "I took that hammock down six months ago." "Well," said the player, "that's my story, and I'm sticking to it." So, as far as my redrawn final table prediction, the stories I'm sticking with are Gardner, D, Ivey, and Fox. Last year you might recall I didn't pick until there were 45 players left and I picked as my short stack a relatively unknown kid named Carlos Mortensen, who then sat in 33rd chip position: I'd liked what I'd seen of Mortensen in a satellite, just as I've always liked what I've seen in Fox, which is why I picked him yesterday even though his stack was half par. Par at this point is $140,211, and of the "sticking picks" (that's "sticking" not "stinking") only Gardner and D are above that mark. For the other five, let's go with the easy three (because of their combination of chips, talent and experience) first: Shipley, Perry, and Crunkleton. Boatman is very tempting, but he's not only below par, he's at a very chip heavy table. BOATMAN WILL NEED FAVORABLE WINDS That's a good news/bad news situation: hard to survive, but if he can survive not merely the stacks of D and Gardner but their play, he'll have a lot of chips. He showed he hat the patience to survive this situation once: can he do it again? Ko is very tempting: after all, Mortensen won the Shooting Stars last year and then won the main event, so he has history on his side, but as talented as the relative newcomer is, I think he's just a bit shy in the seasoning department, and his opposition he shouldn't crumble the way it did at Bay 101. The truth is, this final 45 lacks the star power of recent years, and that's a strong testament to the increasing abilities of poker's middle class. Clean cut Eric Holum has chips, experience and shouldn't make many mistakes, but what the hell, I'm going to use part head and part heart and pick a final table of Gardner, D, Ivey, Fox, Shipley, Perry, Crunkleton, Boatman and Holland. There's probably more heart there than head, because I've picked a lot of short stacks, but if there's one thing I've learned over the years, it's that heart counts for at least as much as head does, and probably more. Because the chances I'll go nine for nine aren't what I would call outstanding, I'll have new picks tomorrow, when chips counts, and who has position on who, will play a major role in determining the champion. Beyond a nagging feeling that it's going to come down to D, Ivey, and Fox (crazy as picking those two short stacks seems), I won't say just yet. UNPAID POLITICAL ANNOUNCEMENT EDITOR'S NOTE: Although you can provide me with any and all kinds of feedback about future WNP topics through the email addresses I listed in the middle of this piece, you should also know that I am finally starting to rev up my own website, www.casinoselfdefense.com, and in the weeks that follow, will start publishing a series of instructional columns there. If you like the sort of instruction you get in WNP, you'll probably like to visit casinoselfdefense.com on a regular basis. When that site was originally developed, it focused more on general gambling than on poker, and indeed the book that you can purchase there now, CASINO GAMBLING THE SMART WAY, is a general gaming book. In the weeks that follow the WSOP, I plan to start making other recommended poker books available there, so as an enticement, you'll start seeing a new weekly poker article.
Comments & ContactI love getting reader feedback and questions. Don't be shy about disagreeing with anything you read in Wednesday Nite Poker. If I decide you're right, readers will hear about it (with attribution or without, as you prefer); if you're wrong, you'll probably learn something important when you hear why you're wrong. Email me at: wednesdaynitepoker@casino.com If you would like to read previous issues of Wednesday Nite Poker you can find them here. Interested in advertising in this newsletter? Contact us at: ads@casino.com. Wednesday
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